What the commissioner investigates in a safeguard inquiry

Relevant goods and Australian industry

The commissioner identifies the imported goods and the goods produced in Australia that are like or directly competitive. The commissioner also identifies the Australian industry producing those goods. The industry may comprise all Australian producers or producers accounting for a major proportion of Australian production.

Relevant information can include:

• product characteristics
• uses
• customer base
• substitutability
• production processes
• distribution channels
• markets
• tariff classifications
• Australian producers
• production volumes
• capacity.

Increased imports and unforeseen developments

The commissioner examines whether the goods have been imported in increased quantities as a result of unforeseen developments. 

Relevant evidence includes:

• rate and amount of the increase
• share of the domestic market the increased imports represent.

The commissioner may consider annual, quarterly or monthly data, depending on what is available and appropriate. 

Evidence should:

• identify its source and period
• explain what it shows.

Unforeseen developments are situations that could not have been foreseen when the relevant international trade obligations were agreed. 

Examples may include:

• changes in demand
• global excess capacity
• trade diversion
• shifts in production
• technological developments
• overseas policy changes
• economic shocks or geopolitical events. 

The relevance of any development depends on the facts of the inquiry.

Serious injury or threat of serious injury

The commissioner investigates whether increased imports are causing serious injury, or threatening to cause serious injury, to the Australian industry. Serious injury is a significant overall impairment in the position of the industry. A threat must be clearly imminent and based on facts, not allegation, conjecture or remote possibility.

Relevant objective and quantifiable evidence may include:

• changes in sales
• production
• productivity
• capacity use
• profits and losses
• employment.

Causation and other factors

The commissioner investigates whether the increased imports caused, or threaten to cause, serious injury. 

The analysis may consider:

• timing of import increases
• changes in industry performance
• market-share loss
• displaced sales
• price effects
• profitability.

The commissioner also examines other factors affecting the industry.

Examples may include:

• demand changes
• consumer preferences
• technology
• competition between Australian producers
• export performance
• input costs
• business or investment decisions. 

If factors other than increased imports are causing injury to the Australian industry at the same time, the commissioner will not attribute injury to the increased imports. 

Public interest

Before recommending a safeguard measure, provisional safeguard measure or extension, the commissioner must consider whether that recommendation would be in the public interest. 

The investigation may consider:

• benefits to the Australian industry of removing the serious injury
• economic significance of Australian industries affected by the imports, including:
  
  • domestic producers or related industries of like or directly competitive goods
  • downstream industries that rely on those goods
  • upstream industries that sell to the industry affected by the imported goods
• likely effects on the Australian economy, downstream industries and consumers
• any other matter the referral requires the commissioner to consider.

Country and international agreements

Safeguard measures generally apply to imports regardless of source. However, international agreements may affect whether imports from particular countries are covered. 

The commissioner may need information about countries of origin to determine this.

Examples include:

• import volumes
• shares
• relevant trade agreements.

 Imports from some developing countries may be excluded where the applicable threshold is met.

How to present evidence

When submitting information to an inquiry, make it relevant, clear and supported by evidence where possible. 

When providing data:

• identify the source and period covered
• use consistent units and reporting periods
• explain what the data shows and why it is relevant
• identify gaps, limitations and changes in method
• separate historical information from forecasts
• explain assumptions and methods for estimates or projections
• include supporting reports, studies, market analysis or statistics where available.

Confidential information

We usually make written statements and documents received during an inquiry publicly available, subject to the rules for confidential information. 

If you are including confidential information in your submission:

• mark it as confidential
• submit a confidential and a non-confidential version.

The non-confidential version should contain enough information for other parties to understand the substance.