Resources and energy quarterly: June 2025

The outlook for Australian resource and energy commodity exports is moderately weaker than in the March quarter 2025 Resources and energy quarterly:

• The near-term outlook for Australian resources and energy exports has softened as rising trade barriers have an adverse impact on world economic activity.
• From an estimated $385 billion in 2024–25, resource and energy export earnings are now forecast to fall to $369 billion in 2025–26. They are forecast to fall further to $352 billion in 2026–27.
• Higher volumes and prices for our gold exports will only partly offset the impact of weaker than expected iron ore and LNG prices in 2025–26. That’s before gold exports fall back in 2026–27.

Iron ore prices are expected to ease over the outlook period due to strong growth in global supply and lower demand from China’s steel sector. This follows steel production cuts announced in May 2025.

• The outlook for world steel production has softened. This is due to increased trade barriers and announced plans to reduce China’s steel production to lift mill profitability.
• Australian iron ore export volumes declined year-on-year in the March quarter 2025. This was due to weather disruptions at key operations. Spot iron ore prices were relatively stable in H1 2025, after falling for most of 2024.
• Lower forecast prices will cut Australia's iron ore exports from $116 billion in 2024–25 to $105 billion in 2025–26 and $97 billion in 2026–27.

Disruptions to production hampered Australian metallurgical coal exports in H1 2025. These disruptions limited supply and helped to support prices in the June quarter after prices declined earlier in the year.

• Prices are expected to remain rangebound around US$200 a tonne in 2026 and 2027, well below US$235 a tonne averaged in 2024.
• Australian exports volumes are expected to be weaker in 2024–25 at 147 million tonnes (Mt). This is due to production disruptions. Export volumes are forecast to increase to 160 Mt in 2025–26 and 169 Mt in 2026–27.
• Export earnings are expected to remain stable around $40 billion per financial year over the outlook period.

High levels of domestic coal production and renewables use will limit import demand in China and India going forward.

• Thermal coal prices are expected to remain subdued over the outlook period, falling from US$135 a tonne in 2024 to US$107 a tonne in 2025. Prices are forecast to remain around US$110 a tonne in 2026 and 2027.
• Australia’s export volumes are expected to decline over the outlook period, falling from 207 million tonnes (Mt) in 2024–25 to 200 Mt in 2026–27.
• Export earnings are expected to ease from $32 billion in 2024–25 to $26 billion in 2026–27.

Gas prices should ease slightly from 2026 as new US and Qatari supply begins to enter markets.

• Australia’s LNG export earnings are forecast to decline from $67 billion in 2024–25 to $53 billion by 2026–27. The earnings forecast for the next 2 years has been revised down from the March 2025 Resources and energy quarterly due to falling oil prices and rising trade barriers. However, recent events add to the upside risk for oil prices.
• New supply from the US and Qatar is forecast to reduce LNG prices from US$15/MMBtu (in early 2025) to around US$10/MMBtu by 2027. However, rising tensions in the Middle East could result in gas price spikes, particularly if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is affected.
• Falls in LNG export earnings are largely price-driven in the short-term, but lack of greenfield investment could weigh on volumes over the longer term.

Crude oil prices are expected to fall as strong expected supply and weak demand puts downward pressure on prices. Australia’s export earnings are expected to fall as prices and output fall.

• Oil prices fell sharply in the first 5 months of 2025. This was due to impending supply increases from OPEC+ and a weaker demand outlook. However, the outbreak of Iran-Israel hostilities in mid-June 2025 has impacted prices.
• Global oil supply is projected to reach 107 mb/d by 2027. This will be driven by OPEC+ barrels returning to the market and some additional output from the Americas.
• Australian exports are projected to fall from $12.9 billion in 2023–24 to $7.4 billion in 2026–27, as oilfields deplete and oil prices fall.

Australian uranium export earnings are expected to grow from a combination of higher prices and volumes.

• Uranium prices are expected to rise from US$71 a pound in 2025 to US$87 a pound in 2027.
• Rising demand for nuclear power is projected to increase uranium consumption from 95 kilo tonnes (kt) in 2024 to 99 kt in 2030. This is driven by the push to net zero.
• Australia’s export values are projected to increase from $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion by 2026–27 as the Honeymoon mine reaches full production.

Australia’s gold export earnings have been revised up across the outlook period. This is due to higher gold prices and persistent demand side strength from investors and central banks. Export earnings will peak in 2025–26 and then come down.

• The gold price hit a new record above US$3,400 an ounce early in the June quarter, driven by a rise in geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Prices are forecast to remain in a US$3,000-3,500 an ounce range in H2 2025 before falling to about US$2,500 an ounce by 2027 as central banks meet target holdings.
• Australian gold output was steady at 72 tonnes in the March quarter 2025. Australian gold output is projected to rise over the outlook period, reaching 360 tonnes a year by 2027. Output will lift across multiple existing large-scale operations and as new projects come online.
• From an estimated $46 billion in 2024–25, record prices and rising export volumes are forecast to push Australian gold earnings to $56 billion in 2025–26. In 2026–27, earnings should fall back to $52 billion as prices moderate.

Aluminium prices eased in H1 2025 due to uncertainty associated with rising trade barriers. Growing global demand for new, energy efficient cars and technologies should see prices rise over the outlook period.

• Aluminium, alumina and bauxite (AAB) pricing and demand volatility is expected to persist in H2 2025. Aluminium spot prices are forecast to average about US$2,475 a tonne in 2025, lower than previously forecast. Ongoing gains in Chinese bauxite production — in response to export bans in Guinea — will also continue to place downward pressure on bauxite prices.
• Australia’s primary aluminium output is forecast to remain at around 1.6 Mt a year over the outlook period. Alumina production is expected to increase by 9% to 18 Mt in 2026–27. New projects are expected to lift Australian bauxite output by 3% to 104 Mt in 2026–27.
• Australia’s AAB export earnings are expected to fall to $19 billion a year in 2026–27, as alumina prices fall.

Copper prices experienced significant volatility early in Q2 2025 due to uncertainty in global trade policies. Prices are expected to gradually rise to 2027, driven by higher demand and ongoing worries over concentrate supply.

• Copper prices fell by around 15% in early April as new US trade barriers were announced. Prices have since recovered to near record highs and are forecast to increase to US$9,940 a tonne by 2027.
• Copper demand will continue to be driven by construction, electric vehicles (EVs), data centres and broader investment in low emission technologies. Copper supply is struggling to keep pace with demand as new mines are slow to develop and trade barriers impact on copper scrap supply.
• Australia’s copper export earnings are estimated at $13.2 billion in 2024–25, up from $ 11.4 billion in 2023–24. Export earnings are forecast to continue to grow to $18.2 billion in 2026–27 due to increased supply and higher prices.

Australian nickel export earnings continue to be impacted by low global prices. Prices may recover modestly as market surpluses narrow, but this will be limited over the 2025-2027 period.

• Global nickel prices remained weak in H1 2025, averaging US$15,110 a tonne as at mid-June 2025. Rising global trade barriers and continued growth in new low-cost supply put downward pressure on prices and added to already high exchange inventories.
• Global nickel demand is strong. Nickel demand increased by nearly 6% year-on-year in the March quarter 2025, driven by stronger EV and stainless-steel production. However, increases in Indonesia’s supply and slowing global industrial production continues to swamp EV and stainless-steel demand growth.
• Australian nickel production continues to face challenging conditions. As most production curtailments have already been implemented, Australia’s nickel exports are forecast to stabilise in the outlook period. They are expected to fall to $1.3 billion in 2025–2026 and $1.1 billion in 2026–2027.

Zinc prices are expected to rise modestly in H2 2025 and remain steady in 2026. Prices are expected to gain gradually in 2027, as demand is expected to experience relatively faster growth mainly in Asia.

• Zinc prices were relatively stable during 2024. Prices are forecast to average US$2,700 a tonne in 2025 and gradually increase to US$2,750 a tonne in 2027.
• Global zinc demand is forecast to grow by around 1% in 2025, due to relatively flat steel production. Demand is forecast to grow slightly faster in 2026 and 2027 as zinc use in battery technology rises, albeit from a low base.
• Zinc exports are estimated at $4.3 billion in 2024–25. Despite increasing export volumes and USD prices, Australian zinc export earnings are estimated to fall to about $3.7 billion in 2025–26, as metallic content in our zinc exports declines and the AUD/USD rises.

Weak prices and ongoing production curtailments are expected to see lithium exports remain relatively soft in the short term.

• Australia’s lithium export earnings are forecast to increase from $4.6 billion in 2024–25 to $6.6 billion in 2026–27, largely driven by growth in export volumes. Australian mine output is expected to grow by more than 7% a year to 2027.
• Global lithium demand is forecast to grow by almost 15% a year to 2027. Rising demand will be driven by increased EV adoption and battery energy storage system (BESS) deployment. Demand will grow faster than supply, at almost 14% a year, but from a smaller base. The accumulated surplus will persist to 2027 and possibly beyond.
• The current oversupply in the global lithium market is not expected to diminish over the outlook period. Strong demand will not be able to absorb excess supply in the short term despite production curtailments.

After several years of lower prices, prices are projected to improve in 2025 and remain stable through 2027. The impacts of export restrictions on some critical minerals could see these markets experience additional volatility.

• Australia’s exports of other critical minerals are forecast to increase from $1.7 billion in 2024–25 to $4.8 billion in 2026–27.
• Manganese remains the largest component of other critical mineral exports, despite reduced volumes in 2024–25 due to cyclone-related disruptions. Resumption of manganese exports from Groote Eylandt is expected to drive most of this increase.
• Prices for Australia’s other critical minerals are forecast to increase in 2025, before stabilising through the rest of the outlook period.

The June 2025 Resources and energy quarterly introduces a basket price index to track overall movements in other critical minerals prices.