Resources and energy quarterly: September 2025

The outlook for Australian resource and energy commodity exports is generally consistent with the March and June 2025 Resources and energy quarterly (REQ) reports:

• The near-term outlook for Australian resources and energy exports has softened slightly as higher trade barriers weigh on world economic growth.
• From an estimated $385 billion in 2024–25, resource and energy export earnings are now forecast to fall to $369 billion in 2025–26, and to $354 billion in 2026–27.
• Higher volumes and prices for gold exports will only partly offset the impact of weaker than expected metallurgical coal and LNG exports in 2025–26 and 2026–27.

Iron ore prices are expected to remain under pressure over the outlook period. This is despite occasional rebounds following the announcement of China's so-called ‘anti-involution’ measures and a massive new hydropower project.

• Global steel production is expected to rise to 1.92 billion tonnes by 2027, as new capacity in India, Southeast Asia, the US and the Middle East offsets the impact of declining output in China.
• Australian iron ore export volumes are forecast to rise by an average of 1.4% a year over the outlook period to 2026–27.
• Iron ore prices are forecast to soften over the outlook period due to the impact of new supply from Africa and other regions. Lower prices will lead to a decline in Australia's iron ore export earnings from $116 billion in 2024–25 to $113 in 2025–26 and $103 billion in 2026–27.

Australian metallurgical coal export volumes are expected to increase after a disrupted H1 2025. Earnings are expected to decline this financial year due to lower prices, before remaining relatively stable through the rest of the outlook period.

• Prices are forecast to be flat through 2026, before increasing slightly in 2027.
• Australian exports volumes were weaker in 2024–25 at 147 million tonnes (Mt) due to production disruptions. Export volumes are forecast to recover to 158 Mt in 2025–26 then increase to 169 Mt in 2026-27.
• Earnings are expected to fall from $40 billion in 2024–25 to $36 billion in 2025–26.

Thermal coal export volumes are expected to increase in the second half of 2025 following supply interruptions earlier in the year. Over the outlook period, exports are forecast to gradually fall as demand fades.

• Thermal coal prices recovered to an average of US$108 a tonne in the September quarter after steep falls at the start of the year. Prices are forecast to be broadly stable over the outlook period as demand and supply both gradually fall.
• Australia’s export volumes are expected to decline over the outlook period, falling from 205 million tonnes (Mt) in 2024–25 to 201 Mt by 2026–27.
• Export earnings are expected to fall from $32 billion in 2024–25 to $26 billion in 2026–27.

Gas prices and earnings should ease over the next 5 years as lower oil prices feed into contracts, and LNG supply from the US and Qatar ramps up.

• Australia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export earnings are forecast to decline from $65 billion in 2024–25 to $48 billion by 2026–27. The earnings forecast has been revised down from the June 2025 REQ due to falling oil prices (which affect LNG contract prices).
• New supply from the US and Qatar is forecast to push down LNG spot prices from US$12.60/MMBtu (in 2025) to around US$11/MMBtu by 2027. Prices remain highly vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions, delays in new project developments and weather events.
• Falls in LNG export earnings are largely price driven in the short term, but gradual depletion at some reserves could weigh on volumes over the longer term.

Crude oil prices are expected to fall as strong supply and weak demand puts downward pressure on prices. Australia’s export earnings are expected to fall as prices and output fall.

• Brent oil prices have fallen in 2025 from US$80 per barrel at the start of the year to US$69 per barrel in the September quarter. Prices are expected to fall further as a long-expected supply surplus begins to materialise.
• World oil supply is expected to reach 108.4 mb/d in 2027, with strong supply growth expected in the Americas and the unwinding of some of the OPEC+ supply restraint.
• Australian export values are projected to fall from $12.5 billion to $7.1 billion in 2026–27, as oilfields deplete and prices fall.

Australian uranium export earnings are expected to rise as a result of higher prices and volumes.

• Uranium prices are expected to rise from US$69 per pound in H1 2025 to an average of US$88 per pound in 2027.
• Rising nuclear power generation is projected to increase uranium consumption from 95.2 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2024 to 97.4 kt in 2027. Rising demand for low emissions energy and baseload power for data centres will drive growth.
• Australian export volumes are forecast to lift from 5 kt in 2024–25 to 6.6 kt in 2026–27.

Australia’s gold export earnings have been revised up across the outlook period. This is due to higher gold prices and persistent demand side strength from investors and central banks. Export earnings will peak in 2025–26 and then come down.

• The gold price hit a new record of US$3,764 an ounce on 23 September 2025. This was driven by market speculation over a possible decrease in the Federal Funds rate on top of existing price pressures from geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Prices are forecast to remain high over the forecast period with a peak average in 2027 of around US$3,250 an ounce.
• Australian gold output is projected to rise over the outlook period. Output will lift across multiple existing large-scale operations, and as new projects come online.
• Record prices and rising export volumes are forecast to push Australian gold earnings to $60 billion in 2025–26 and 2026–27.

Growing global demand for new, energy efficient cars and technologies should support prices over the outlook period.

• Demand for aluminium, alumina and bauxite (AAB) is expected to remain volatile in the short term. Prices also remain volatile. The rise in aluminium supply is expected to exceed the rise in global demand over the outlook period, despite strong demand for aluminium for energy-efficient cars and technologies. Green aluminium demand and supply is expected to rise, driven by the need to reduce carbon emissions. The alumina price is expected to fall over the outlook period as global supply recovers.
• Australia’s annual primary aluminium output is expected to be stable at 1.6 million tonnes (Mt) over the outlook period. Increased production at South32’s Worsley alumina refinery is expected to lift Australian output to 18 Mt in 2026–27. New projects and sustained output in existing mines are expected to lift Australian bauxite output to 104 Mt in 2026–27.
• After surging on a spike in the alumina price in 2024–25, Australia’s AAB export earnings are forecast to fall from $23 billion to around $18 billion a year over the outlook period, as alumina prices fall.

Copper prices have returned to elevated levels throughout the September quarter 2025, having fallen earlier in the year due to escalating trade restrictions between the US and China. Prices have been revised up compared with the June 2025 REQ, due to a strong demand outlook which is projected to be more limited by mine supply.

• Copper prices have been 4.6% higher on average so far in 2025, ranging from US$8,500 to US$10,300 a tonne. Prices are expected to increase from US$9,550 a tonne in 2025 to around US$10,100 a tonne in 2027.
• Global copper demand is projected to rise strongly to meet requirements for clean energy technologies, data centres and electricity infrastructure more broadly. Copper supply is expected to lag demand as new mines are slow to develop and trade barriers interrupt scrap flows.
• Australia’s copper exports are projected to rise from 768 kt in 2024–25 to 962 kt in 2026–27, fuelled by new mines and expansions. Earnings are projected to grow from $13 billion in 2024–25 to $16 billion in 2026–27.

Australian nickel export earnings continue to be impacted by low global prices. Prices may recover modestly as market surpluses narrow, but this will be limited over the 2025–27 period.

• Global nickel prices remained weak, averaging approximately US$15,100 in September 2025. Rising global trade barriers and continued growth in new, low-cost supply put downward pressure on prices, added to already high exchange inventories.
• Global nickel demand is strong. Nickel demand increased by 5.6% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by stronger (electric vehicle) EV and stainless-steel production. However, an increase in Indonesian supply and slowing global industrial production continues to swamp the impact of rising EV and stainless-steel demand.
• Australian nickel production continues to face challenging conditions. As most production curtailments have already been implemented, Australia’s nickel exports are forecast to stabilise in the outlook period. They are expected to fall to $1.3 billion in 2025–26 and $1.1 billion in 2026–27.

Zinc prices are expected to rise modestly over the rest of H2 2025 but remain subdued over the outlook period to 2027, due to slowing demand.

• The zinc price is forecast to average US$2,740 a tonne in 2025 and rise slightly to US$2,750 over the forecast period to 2027.
• Global supply is set to grow modestly over the outlook period, while the outlook for zinc demand remains subdued. This is due to slowing global growth and ongoing weakness in China’s property market. Global demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1%, reaching 14.0 Mt by 2027.
• Australia’s zinc exports were $4.4 billion in 2024–25 and are forecast to decline to $3.5 billion in 2026–27, as prices soften and the AUD/USD rises.

Modest increases in prices and lithium hydroxide production expansions are expected to see lithium exports growing relatively steadily over the outlook period.

• Australia’s lithium export earnings are forecast to increase from over $4.8 billion in 2024–25 to over $6.1 billion in 2026–27, driven by modest growth in lithium hydroxide export volumes and prices.
• Global lithium demand is forecast to grow by almost 15% a year to 2027. Rising demand will be driven by increased EV adoption and battery energy storage system (BESS) deployment. Supply is expected to grow at over 13% a year.
• The current oversupply in the global lithium market is not expected to diminish noticeably over the outlook period. Strong demand will not be able to absorb excess supply in the short term despite production curtailments.

Australia’s exports earnings from other critical minerals are expected to increase from $2 billion in 2024–25 to $5 billion in 2026–27.

• Manganese production is set to return to normal levels in 2025–26, following repairs to port facilities at GEMCO’s Groote Eylandt facility. Resumption of manganese ore exports and expanded rare earth production is expected to drive most of the increase in export earnings over the outlook period.
• Export controls are driving market volatility, leading to a sharp divergence in prices between China and international markets. This bifurcation is expected to persist in the near term while constrained supply persists.
• MP Materials has signed a 10-year agreement to supply neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) products to the US Department of Defense. The deal includes a price floor above recent spot levels, which has contributed to a rebound in rare earth element prices.
• Announcement of a proposed joint venture between Alcoa and Japanese partners provides an opportunity for Australia to produce gallium for the first time since 1990.