Australia’s resources and energy exports set to soften amid trade uncertainties

Australia’s resources and energy export volumes continue to grow. However, global economic headwinds will continue to result in lower commodities prices and export earnings. 

The June 2025 Resources and energy quarterly (REQ) forecasts a modest rise in commodity export volumes over the next 2 years. However, commodity earnings are expected to fall from $385 billion in 2024–25 to $352 billion by 2026–27. The fall in earnings reflects the impacts of rising trade barriers, relatively weak world economic growth and declining bulk commodity prices.

Compared to forecasts in the March 2025 REQ, earnings forecasts have been revised down by $2 billion in 2024–25, $4 billion in 2025–26, and $8 billion in 2026–27. A surge in gold prices has driven a large upward revision in gold exports in the outlook period. However, weaker revenues for iron ore and LNG are now forecast over the outlook period.

Highlights from the June 2025 REQ:

• Iron ore remains Australia’s largest earner and will account for over 25% of all resource and energy commodities over the outlook period. As the global supply of iron ore increases, the price of iron ore is forecast to decline over the outlook period. Lower forecast prices will reduce Australia's iron ore export earnings from $116 billion in 2024–25 to $105 billion in 2025–26 and $97 billion in 2026–27.
• Stronger global supply is expected to reduce LNG prices slowly, resulting a decline in export earnings to $60 billion in 2025–26 and $53 billion in 2026–27.
• Gold earnings are set to rise to $56 billion in 2025–26. This growth reflects a rise in both volumes and prices. Gold prices are forecast to decline (but remain relatively high) in 2026–27, cutting earnings to $52 billion.
• Alumina earnings are forecast to ease in 2025–26 as the extraordinary price surge of 2024 continues to unwind. Earnings are forecast to fall from over $12 billion in 2024–25 to just over $9 billion in 2025–26. Lower prices are expected to drive a further (small) decline to $8.8 billion in 2026–27.
• Lithium earnings are expected to recover slowly as prices rise from the recent substantial falls. Earnings are forecast to rise from $4.6 billion in 2024–25 to over $5.5 billion in 2025–26 before surpassing $6.6 billion in 2026–27.
• Following recent declines, export earnings from other critical minerals are forecast to recover over the outlook period. Earnings are anticipated to rise from $1.7 billion in 2024–25 to $4.8 billion by 2026–27. This is driven by improved global prices and the anticipated restart of operations at GEMCO, Australia’s largest manganese mine.