Australia’s resources and energy export earnings set to soften as global uncertainties persist

Australia’s resources and energy export volumes continue to grow while gold prices remain buoyant. However, global economic uncertainty continues to weigh on other commodity prices and earnings.

The September 2025 Resources and energy quarterly (REQ) forecasts a modest rise in commodity export volumes over the next 2 years, though prices continue to decline. Record gold prices are expected to offset lower commodity prices as earnings fall from $385 billion in 2024–25 to $354 billion by 2026–27.

Earnings forecasts for 2025–26 are largely unchanged from the June edition of the REQ, and earnings forecasts for 2026–27 have been revised up slightly.

Highlights from the September 2025 REQ:

• Gold earnings are set to rise to $60 billion in 2025–26, driven by higher volumes and prices.
• Iron ore remains Australia’s largest earner and is expected to account for around one-quarter of all resource and energy commodities over the next 2 years. However, as global supply increases, prices are forecast to decline, reducing Australia's iron ore export earnings from $116 billion in 2024–25 to $103 billion in 2026–27.
• Energy exports are set to fall over the outlook period, with declines for thermal coal, LNG and oil. A rapid decline in oil prices is expected to feed through into LNG exports. These are projected to decline from $108 billion in 2024–25 to $81 billion in 2026–27.
• Alumina earnings are forecast to ease in 2025–26 as the price surge of 2024 continues to unwind. From over $12 billion in 2024–25, earnings are forecast to fall to $9 billion by 2026–27.
• Lithium earnings are expected to pick up as prices recover from recent substantial falls. Earnings are forecast to rise from $4.8 billion in 2024–25 to $6.1 billion in 2026–27.
• Export earnings from other critical minerals are forecast to grow from $2 billion in 2024–25 to $5 billion by 2026–27. These are expected to be driven by resuming manganese production at GEMCO, and an expansion of other rare earth projects including Lynas’ Kalgoorlie processing facility.