Australia’s resources and energy export earnings set to remain at high levels despite forecast falls

The outlook for Australian export earnings from resource and energy commodities has strengthened, owing to higher prices since the September 2025 REQ was published. Export volumes are robust and are expected to increase to close to record levels in 2027.

The December 2025 REQ forecasts resources and energy export earnings will edge down from $385 billion in 2024–25, reaching $383 billion in 2025–26 and $374 billion in 2026–27. Earnings forecasts for 2025–26 have been revised up $14 billion from the September edition of the REQ and earnings forecasts for 2026–27 up by $20 billion.

Highlights from the December 2025 REQ:

• Export volumes will hold steady or rise for most commodities over the outlook period.
• Gold earnings are forecast to rise to $69 billion in 2025–26 and $74 billion in 2026–27, driven by higher volumes and prices.
• Iron ore is expected to remain Australia’s largest earner, accounting for around one-quarter of all resource and energy commodity earnings over the next 2 years. However, as global supply increases, prices are forecast to decline. This is expected to reduce Australia's iron ore export earnings from $116 billion in 2024–25 to $107 billion in 2026–27.
• Alumina earnings are forecast to fall in 2025–26 as the price surge in 2024 continues to unwind. From over $12 billion in 2024–25, earnings are forecast to fall to $8 billion by 2026–27.
• Energy exports are set to fall over the outlook period, with declines for thermal coal, LNG and oil. A rapid decline in oil prices is expected to feed through into LNG export earnings.
• Lithium earnings are expected to pick up as prices recover from substantial falls in recent years. Earnings are forecast to rise from $4.8 billion in 2024–25 to $6.8 billion in 2026–27.
• Critical minerals exports are forecast to increase from around $11 billion in 2024–25 to $14 billion in 2026–27. A recovery in manganese exports and rising exports of rare earths and antimony will contribute to this growth.

The 2025 Resources and energy major projects (REMP) report shows a healthy and relatively stable investment outlook for Australia’s resources and energy sector.