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Impact evaluation framework

The Low Emissions Technology Statement (LETS) 2020 committed to developing an impact evaluation framework for the Technology Investment Roadmap. The impact evaluation framework will:

  • provide a clear and transparent way of tracking and reporting on the roadmap’s progress
  • inform government decisions to maximise the impact of policies and investments in low emissions technologies.

Figure 21 shows the pathway from the government’s policies and investments to their intended impacts. The pathway has three stages, which align with the goals and targets in LETS 2020:

  • Enabling policies and investments. These are government policies and investments that support low emissions technology development and deployment.
  • Co-investment and employment outcomes. These include co-investment in government-funded projects from the private sector and other jurisdictions, as well as jobs supported.
  • Other technology, economic and abatement impacts. Impacts the government aims to influence, but which are also influenced by external factors. These include:
    • technology deployment and costs
    • exports supported by priority technologies
    • reduced emissions.

The main long-term impact we will track is progress towards the economic stretch goals for priority technologies. Technology costs will take several years to reduce, so private sector co-investment is an important leading metric for progress in the meantime.

We aim to attract an average of over $3 of co-investment for every $1 of Australian Government investment over the decade to 2030, which is expected to be at least $20 billion. Lower co‑investment may mean the private sector has less confidence in the technology or that policy settings need review. Significantly higher co‑investment could mean technologies have become commercially mature. This would mean government investment could be prioritised elsewhere.

We will report our progress every year in annual statements, with individual metrics to be covered to the extent that data is available. To support this reporting, we will collect data from all relevant Australian Government agencies and also establish data supply agreements with core investment and regulatory agencies, including the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) and Clean Energy Regulator (CER). The ‘Australian Government investment’ section of the introduction chapter includes progress updates on some metrics for the 12 months ending 30 June 2021.

The impact evaluation framework will be continually reviewed and refined in line with the roadmap’s adaptive approach.

Figure 21: Impact evaluation framework

Image showing the 3 stages and associated metrics of the impact pathway. Text version provided immediately after image

Enabling policies and investments

1.1 Government funding allocated to low emissions technologies

Metric: $ committed or expended

1.2 Enabling policies delivered

Narrative: Progress on policies to support priority low emissions technologies

1.3 International partnerships established

Narrative: Progress on international partnerships for priority low emissions technologies

2: Co-investment and employment outcomes

2.1 Co-investment leveraged

  • Target: Over $3 leveraged per $1 of Australian Government funding
  • Metric: $ co-investment committed to low emissions technologies

2.2 Investment project outcomes achieved

  • Narrative: Outcomes achieved for selected investment projects in each priority technology area (case studies)
  • Metric: Jobs supported by government investment in low emission technologies

3: Other technology, economic and abatement impacts

3.1 Decreased costs for priority technologies in Australia

Metrics:

  1. Hydrogen – Cost of producing clean hydrogen (target: $2 per kg)
  2. Ultra low-cost solar – Levelised cost of electricity from solar (target: $15 per MWh)
  3. Storage – Cost of electricity from storage for firming (target: $100 per MWh)
  4. Steel and aluminium – Average costs for low emissions steel and aluminium (targets: $700 per tonne for steel, $2200 per tonne for aluminium)
  5. Carbon capture and storage – Average cost for CO₂ compression, transport and storage (target: $20 per tonne)
  6. Soil carbon measurement – Average cost of measuring soil carbon (target: $3 per hectare per year)

3.2 Increased deployment of priority technologies in Australia

Metrics:

  1. Hydrogen: Total clean hydrogen production capacity (tonnes per year) and annual production (tonnes)
  2. Ultra low-cost solar: Installed capacity (MW) for large-scale solar
  3. Storage:
    • NEM and WEM installed capacity (GW) and average duration (hours) for daily storage and for deep storage
    • Annual amount (GWh) and share (%) of total electricity generation from large-scale solar and wind
  4. Steel and aluminium: Annual volume (tonnes) and values ($) of low emissions steel, aluminium, improved iron ore and alumina produced in Australia
  5. Carbon capture and storage: Total CCS capacity (tonnes per year) operational in Australia
  6. Soil carbon measurement:
    • ERF projects registered under new soil carbon method
    • Volume of abatement (tonnes)

3.3 Exports supported by priority technologies

Metrics:

  1. Hydrogen: Annual volume (tonnes) and value ($) of clean hydrogen and related exports (for example, ammonia)
  2. Steel and aluminium: Annual volume (tonnes) and value ($) of low emissions steel, aluminium, improved iron ore and alumina exports

3.4 Emissions reductions supported by priority technologies

Metrics & narrative:

Actual and projected progress of Australia’s annual emissions (tonnes), relevant to the contribution of priority technologies