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Projecting greenhouse gas emissions

Emissions projections are estimates of Australia's future greenhouse gas emissions and help determine how Australia is tracking against its emissions reduction targets.

The projections use sector-specific models. These sectors are:

  • electricity
  • stationary energy excluding electricity
  • transport
  • fugitives
  • industrial processes and product use
  • agriculture
  • waste
  • land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)

The projections input to:

  • policy development and evaluation for the government and stakeholders
  • determining the efficacy of emissions reduction policies
  • scoping future emissions reductions activities

The emissions projections are prepared consistent with international guidelines adopted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) guidelines.
Reporting Australia's emissions projections also fulfils one of Australia's reporting requirements under the UNFCCC.

The difference between projections and emissions forecasts

Our department prepares emissions projections using the latest production and activity levels, commodity prices and macroeconomic assumptions data. Our department makes reasonable assumptions about this data into the future based on the advice of other government agencies and external consultants. These include:

The projections are modelled taking this data into account and indicate what Australia's future emissions could be if the assumptions that underpin the projections continue to occur.

For example, the projections presume that assumptions around the current rates of economic and population growth, technologies adopted and government policies in place. The projections do not attempt to account for unknown future changes in technology, energy demand and supply and the economy.

Certainty of projections

Projections are inherently uncertain.

They involve judgements about the future growth path of global and domestic economies, policies and measures, technology and human behaviour. This uncertainty increases the further into the future emissions are projected.

Emissions projection reports

Our department issues reports that detail emissions trends including sector specific analysis of the factors that drive emissions.

Read the reports:

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Last updated: 9 January 2022

Content ID: 67484