The Minister for Resources’ decision was informed by:
- the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) Gas inquiry June 2025 interim report
- the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) 2025 Gas statement of opportunity
- additional information on the Western Australian and Northern gas markets.
The ACCC report forecasts a 2 PJ shortfall to an 11 PJ surplus in the east coast market. The size of the shortfall or surplus will depend on how much of their available uncontracted gas LNG producers export.
The government is confident that there will be sufficient uncontracted gas available to address any potential shortfalls to the market. Under the Heads of Agreement, LNG producers must offer their uncontracted gas to the domestic market ahead of export. There is also forecast to be sufficient gas in storage to draw down to address potential shortfalls or emerging supply issues.
In the unlikely event a localised gas supply emergency or shortfall arises, AEMO’s powers allow it to respond in several ways. This includes directing gas flows in the east coast market, if required.
This means the government is confident that:
- Australia’s east coast gas market will have enough supply from October to December 2025.
- Domestic demand for the east coast gas market can be met without reducing gas exports.
- There are sufficient mitigations to address supply-demand imbalances for the east coast and the Western Australian gas markets.