Australia is expected to have plentiful gas supply to meet demand during the January to March 2027 quarter (Q1). Forecasts show a healthy surplus across the east coast market.
The latest advice from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) indicates that supply will comfortably meet consumer and industry needs over the period.
The ACCC’s September 2026 Gas Inquiry report forecasts a surplus of between 5 and 15 petajoules (PJ) on the east coast for Q1. This depends on the level of uncontracted gas exports. While this forecast surplus is 9 PJ lower than the ACCC previously forecast, the east coast market will be well supplied for this quarter. Anticipated decline in southern state production and increased export demand are driving this reduction.
Australia’s east coast gas market is well positioned to:
- meet domestic demand throughout the first quarter of 2027
- maintain gas exports without impacting local supply
- refill storages
- manage potential supply and demand risks through existing regulatory powers.
In light of these conditions, the Minister for Resources will not issue a notification of intent (NOI) to consider Q1 supply outlook.
Until the start of the Domestic Gas Reservation Scheme, our department will continue its quarterly assessments of domestic gas supply to support Australia’s energy needs.