The minister’s decision was informed by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) June 2024 interim gas inquiry report.
The report forecasts enough gas across the east coast to meet domestic demand from October to December 2024, even if liquified natural gas (LNG) producers export all their uncontracted gas.
This means the government is confident that:
- Australia’s east coast gas market will likely have enough supply from October to December 2024
- domestic demand can be met without reducing gas exports
- should a localised gas supply emergency arise, the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) powers allow it to respond in several ways, including by directing gas flows, if required.
The ACCC report forecasts that supply is expected to exceed demand, with an east coast gas surplus of between 7 petajoules (PJ) and 19 PJ for the fourth quarter. The size of the surplus will depend on export levels.
The ACCC report draws on gas demand data from the AEMO 2024 Gas statement of opportunities report and gas supply information from gas producers in March 2024.
The ACCC forecast does not include gas supply agreements made after 17 January 2024 under the Competition and Consumer (Gas Market Code) Regulations 2023. Any new agreements may increase the forecast surplus.