The minister’s decision was informed by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) September 2023 interim gas inquiry report.
The data forecast sufficient gas supply to meet demand. That’s even if liquid natural gas (LNG) producers export all their uncontracted gas.
This means the government is confident:
- Australia’s gas market is likely to have enough supply from January to March 2024.
- any domestic supply shortages or seasonal demand threats can be addressed without reducing gas exports.
The ACCC report forecasts a gas surplus of between 1.4 petajoule (PJ) and 19.9 PJ for the quarter. The size of the surplus will depend on export levels. Domestic demand is typically lower in summer.
The ACCC forecast excludes any possible supply commitments producers may make under the Competition and Consumer (Gas Market Code) Regulations 2023 exemptions process. These commitments may increase the forecast surplus.